I'll also write a small preview for this coming Wednesday's episode, "The Variable," regarding what I expect will be covered.
So, here's my huge, epic theory... To give credit where credit is due, my brother and I pretty much came up with this together through some crazy, detailed discussion following one of the episodes from earlier this season. Be forewarned: This theory is going to require a significant amount of groundwork to be laid in order to properly outline this wide-spanning theory. Here goes...
All-things "The Incident" Theory
- In The Swan orientation video from Season 2, made in 1980, we are told by "Marvin Candle," aka who we now know to be Dr. Pierre Chang, that "The Hatch" was originally intended to be a place to study electromagnetism, specically, "the unique electromagnetic fluctuations" from the part of the Island where the station is located. However, the video goes on to explain that "not long after the experiments began . . . there was an incident, and since that time, the following protocol has been observed." This protocol which Pierre Chang describes is pushing the button, a procedure which must be repeated every 108 minutes.
- Now, we know from other LOST canon what exactly "pushing the button" does and what it prevents. Let me refresh your memory: There had been repeated hints that pushing the button was of the utmost importance and that if this procedure was not continued, the results would be catastrophic. In the Season 2 finale, we learn that pushing the button is really a discharge mechanism to release an electromagnetic anomaly residing within the sealed off portion of The Swan, an aspect of The Swan to which Sayid commented: "The last time I heard of concrete being poured over everything in this way was Chernobyl." The man who rescued Desmond when he shipwrecked on the Island, Kelvin, told Desmond a good deal more about "The Incident." He explained that The Incident was a containment leak which caused a charge to build up over time. After 108 minutes, the charge builds up to the point where the magnetic field it creates begins to have effects within The Swan station itself. After following Kelvin into the jungle one day, Desmond comes back to The Hatch late and the timer has already run down to nothing, displaying hieroglyphics were the countdown numbers once were. He still managed to release the charge by inputting the numbers and pushing the button but the results were catastrophic: This seemingly small screw-up on Desmond's part caused the crash of Oceanic Flight 815, bringing our Losties to the Island. If not stopped completely, the magnetic field created by the buildup would hypothetically continue to grow indefinitely, killing everyone on Earth. This is implied by Ms. Hawking who explains Desmond's future path to him as his consciousness travels back in time, causing him to re-live a series of events in his life before coming to the Island (this occurs in the Season 3 episode "Flashes Before Your Eyes"). Ms. Hawking explained to Desmond, "Well, I know your name as well as I know that you don't ask Penny to marry you. In fact, you break her heart. Well, breaking her heart is, of course, what drives you in a few short years from now to enter that sailing race -- to prove her father wrong -- which brings you to the Island where you spend the next three years of your life entering numbers into the computer until you are forced to turn that failsafe key. And if you don't do those things, Desmond David Hume, every single one of us is dead..."
- This final statement of "every single one of us is dead" has been confirmed by the co-producers Damon and Carlton to mean everyone in the world. So what keeps this from happening? Turning that failsafe key... But what do we remember about the failsafe key? The failsafe key was a mechanism which, when triggered, would completely terminate the electromagnetic buildup that the protocol of entering the numbers and pressing the button discharged time and time again. Turning the failsafe key was described by Kelvin as "[blowing] the dam." As we know, in the Season 2 finale, Locke, in his frustration and despondency, destroyed The Hatch computer, insisting the button need not be pushed. Desmond realizes that the button must be pushed and turns the failsafe key, causing The Swan station hatch to implode and releasing what's generally referred to as the "Discharge."
- The "Discharge" is also commonly referred to as "the sky turning purple" by the Losties and others on the Island because of the effects exemplified by the Discharge: A blinding white light covered the Island, the sky turned an intense violet color, the ground shook, and an intense buzzing sound was heard, described by Hurley as sounding like a blender. The creepy Other Tom explained that this event shut down the Others' communcations completely.
- So, how do we (or I guess "I") make sense of all this? Well, get ready...
- We know from "Some Like It Hoth" that The Swan was built in The Hostiles territory, breaking "The Truce" that the Dharma Initiative had with the indigenous people of the Island. Why would the Dharma Initiative risk this? I believe because this area on the Island is so highly concentrated with this special electromagnetic energy and therefore so critically important, the Dharma Initiative felt.
So how did the failsafe work? How did it terminate the electromagnetic buildup once and for all? Here's what I'm thinking (and here's where all the theorizing and speculation starts...): Turning the failsafe key set off Jughead, the 1950's U.S. H-Bomb left on the Island, buried deep underground, beneath the surface of the Island. The failsafe key "hub" or whatever you want to call it even looks like it could be a nuclear launch "ignition" (for lack of a better term)... Somehow I believe the Dharma Initiative got a hold of Jughead, since the last we know, The Others had it and were implored by Daniel Faraday to bury it immediately. The Dharma Initiative might have buried Jughead near the source of this unique electromagnetic energy lying within the core of the Island so that when the bomb was detonated, the energy, while it would unfortunately be sealed off pretty well, if not indefinitely, would no longer be a threat and would not be unleashed to create a magnetic field of such proportions that it would kill everyone on the face of the planet.- Now work with me here -- this makes sense... The violet sky and the blinding white light is very reminiscent of when Ben turned the frozen wheel in the Season 4 finale, transporting him 10 months into the future and creating the exact same effects listed above. We know that in this situation the Island moved. Additionally, the wheel had, according to Christian Shephard in instructing John Locke in "This Place Is Death," "slipped off its axis. All you have to do is give it a little push." The wheel seems to control time on the Island. It had slipped off its axis and throughout the beginning of Season 5, we saw the effects of this skipping turntable-esque phenomenon: Time jumps occurred over and over, transporting our Losties on the Island through time.
- Now, the question is, what are we to make of the obvious similarities between this event and the effects of Desmond's turning the failsafe key? I propose to you this: If Jughead was indeed set off by Desmond's turning the failsafe key, it would have created significant tremors in the earth, earthquake-type vibrations which we saw in the Season 2 finale. This explosion may not have been enough to knock the wheel off of its axis, per se, and so disrupt the linear progression of time, but it might have been enough to jolt the wheel forward, moving the Island a little further in time than that of the outside world.
- Is there any evidence for this crazy theory, you may think? The answer is yes. Consider Daniel Faraday. In his "experiment" in Season 4, he communicates with Regina back on the freighter, the Kahana, telling her to shoot "the payload," a small rocket. However, there is a discrepancy:
By her calculation, by the time the payload ought to have reached the beacon, Daniel doesn't have it year.
It suddenly revives a while later, 31 minutes and 20 seconds later, in fact. Daniel asserts that this discrepancy is "far more than weird." Could it not be that the wheel was shook forward 31 minutes and 20 seconds into the future? In the second episode of Season 4, "Confirmed Dead," Daniel, shortly after his arrival onto the Island, vaguely comments, sort of to himself, "The light...is strange out here, isn't it? It's kind of like...it doesn't scatter quite right..." Now, I'm no physicist to be sure, but might light passing through the atmosphere into a place 31 minutes and 20 seconds further in the future appear to the trained eye of a legit physicist to look a little strange? I believe the answer is yes (and have no IDEA how else this line could possibly ever be explained if not through this! haha). - Now, all of this protocol of pushing the button would never have even been necessary if it hadn't been for this "Incident" which occurred. While the larger more exciting, tying-together-previous-bits-of-information theory was all the stuff I just talked about above, I do have an idea as to what The Incident might have really been. Here's my guess: The Losties currently living in 1977 time will attempt to access and utilize the unique electromagnetic energy of the Island to transport themselves back into present time, but this will cause a containment leak in the energy, requiring the subsequent continuous buildup to be released. Either way, look forward to this season's two-part finale episode, which is entitled "The Incident," to depict some of the catastrophic events surrounding the occurrence of the Incident, as well as what the Incident actually is...because let's face it, I'll probably be wrong. :P
"The Variable" preview and personal speculation...
What can we expect in this week's new episode, "The Variable"? Well, we know that it is a Daniel Faraday-centric episode. Daniel has just returned to the Island from off the Island with a group of scientists from the mainland.
The co-producers have specifically labeled this (as it might logically seem) to truly be a sort of sister episode to Season 4's "The Constant," an episode depicting Desmond's struggle to identify his constant to save himself from the fate of being too long unstuck in time: death.
Here's what I believe will be true about Daniel's ventures since we last saw him in "LaFleur":
- When Jack asked Sawyer if Daniel was with them, Sawyer ambiguously replied, "Not anymore." My guess is that Daniel probably left on that sub which Horace promised Sawyer and the rest of them would come to take them off the Island in a little over two weeks after Sawyer saved his ass and the rest of the Dharma Initiative in the episode "LaFleur," explaining that they were not responsible for the deaths of two of Richard's men, Hostiles. Obviously, for whatever reason, Sawyer and Juliet and the gang decided to stay and were given that opportunity, having gained Horace Goodspeed's trust. But Daniel, I'm guessing, left and went back to the U.S. and has been working at Ann Arbor, Michigan, where the Dharma Initiative's home front is apparently located, gleaning information about the Island and learning more about the Island's unique properties. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Daniel Faraday doesn't spend some amount of time with his mother, Ms. Eloise Hawking. Finally, I believe that Daniel will be directly connected in at least one scene to the Island-finding Dharma Initiative Lamp Post station, complete with swinging pendulum.
- Now, it would seem that Daniel has been sent for by Pierre Chang to help in understanding and learning how to properly harness the electromagnetic energy of the Island, so easily disrupted as we saw in "Some Like It Hoth," as a man's tooth filling was ripped from his mouth up through his skull, killing him.
- Daniel's apparent memory problems. Upon arriving to the Island in Season 4, there are numerous scenes which seem to hint that his memory suffers, why, we don't know. Furthermore, when he sees the fake plane wreckage of Oceanic Flight 815 discovered on his television at home before coming to the Island and being recruited by Charles Widmore to go to the Island on the Kahana, he starts to cry and, when asked by his caretaker as to why he's crying, replies he does not know why. I expect this phenomenon of apparent memory loss will be addressed.
- I think we'll learn more about Daniel's journal, in general, perhaps specifically why Daniel would think to recognize Daniel as his constant in case anything might go wrong in the future.
- I also think we'll find out more about this Theresa chick who he apparently did experiments (funded by Widmore?) on and why he bolted when she essentially went under and assumed the disposition of a vegetable.
- Why knows: I'm reaching here, I think, but it'd be cool to find out for sure who exactly is Daniel Faraday's father and maybe even more about why Desmond is "uniquely and miraculously special." I hope! :)
So that's it. Whew! I know, it was long, and if you made it all the way through, I salute you.
Do you have questions? Objections? Anything? Feel free to comment below. :)

